Re-examine the Relationship between the Climatic Factors and Rice Yield in Bangladesh
Ahnaf Rafid
Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, 1706, Bangladesh.
Sajia Sharmin *
Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, 1706, Bangladesh.
Tamanna Yesmine
Department of Agricultural Finance and Cooperatives, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, 1706, Bangladesh.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The agriculture of Bangladesh, especially rice production is indissolubly linked climate and also be affected with the change in different climatic variables. The main focus of the study is to examine the relationship between the yield of three seasonal rice (e.g., Aus, Aman and Boro) and climatic factors/variables mainly maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall for Bangladesh. Time series data have been used for the period 1990 to 2020 at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climatic variables and rice yield using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The findings of this study confirm that climate variables have had significant effects on rice yields but these effects are seen to vary among three rice crops. Maximum temperature is statistically significant with positive effects for the yields of Aus and Boro rice. On the contrary, statistically insignificant with adverse effects on Aman rice. On the other hand, Minimum temperature has a statistically significant with negative effect on Aman rice and a significantly positive effect on Aus and Boro rice. However, rainfall has a statistically significant effect on Aus, Aman and Boro the rice yields and has adverse effect on Boro rice. Also, the influences of maximum temperature and minimum temperature are more pronounced compared with that of rainfall.
Keywords: Climate change, rice production, Aus, Aman, Boro, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall